Ben Kerido / From Israel with Love Blog
Iran is very rapidly approaching nuclear breakout point, meaning that the capabilities to develop and obtain nuclear weapons are not only imminent, they are all but inevitable. So much so, in fact, that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is claiming that the window of time of merely a few weeks remains for Iran to return to the Obama-era Iranian nuclear deal. This deal (the JCPOA) was abandoned by President Donald J. Trump in 2018 under the premise of being wholly ineffective and unduly beneficial (especially monetarily) to the Iranians, the leading global sponsors of terrorism.
Ever since Biden entered the White House the United States has desperately attempted to return to the Obama-era deal with a plethora of talks in Vienna, etc., but to no avail. The Iranians are having none of that. In fact, Blinken is now begging the Russians, namely Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, to pressure the Iranians into some sort of deal, either permanent or even temporary. Iran, however, has not responded positively to that pressure.
Meanwhile, Russia, China, and Iran have recently engaged in naval military training in the Indian Ocean. The message is clear: Iran has military cooperation with powerful friends who are not the friends of Israel and/or the United States.
In contrast, the message sent by Biden and his colleagues is one of weakness and appeasement. The disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan shouted to the world that ragtag terrorists could drive the powerful American military out in shame. And Biden’s stance on Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border – presumably for a large invasion – has hardly been a deterrent. In fact, Biden stated on January 19, 2022, that a “minor incursion” or just a “small invasion” of the sovereign territory of the NATO ally would not merit a significant international response. Needless to say, the Ukrainians were not pleased, and apparently there is now a dispute in NATO as to how to respond to Putin’s pending aggression.
The point is that the world is watching America’s response to global threats ranging from the Taliban to Putin. And in the face of weakness, Iran is becoming ever emboldened and rattling its sabres more and more.
Accordingly, Iran has engaged in a series of little known skirmishes against both Israel and the United States, ranging from attacks on Israeli shipping to sponsoring terrorist militias in Syria to striking American military and diplomatic infrastracture in neighboring Shia-allied Iraq. These efforts were largely planned and coordinated by General Qasem Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Republican Guard and Quds Force, which are basically a military-style terrorist and espionage organization. Soleimani was the most dangerous terrorist in the world until President Trump assassinated him amidst a flurry of eyebrow-raising disapproval and criticism from his Democrat political opponents.
Despite the loss of Soleimani, Iran has taken advantage of the perhaps shocking policies of appeasement by Biden and his colleagues to speed towards nuclear weapons and engage Israel and even American forces and entities in skirmishes to test each nation’s resolve. Israel has responded with at least some measure of strength, although the Bennett-Lapid coalition is notably softer than Netanyahu and his allies. The United States, in contrast, seems to be doubling down on its strategy of appeasement. But – spoiler alert – this weak approach hasn’t worked up to this point, and it is highly unlikely that it will in the future.
So what does that mean? It means that war with Iran in one form or another is all but inevitable. But there is an assumption that this war would be between Iran and Israel exclusively. As Iran drills with Russia and China in the Indian Ocean, it is becoming more and more clear that will not be the case. And the United States should take very serious warning from the global shift in attitude towards the American superpower. For as much as Iran hates the Jewish state of Israel, the “Great Satan” of America is an even bigger prize. And Israel is responding with at least some show of strength, whereas the United States is persistently displaying weakness and vulnerability. It’s a dangerous gamble by Biden and his political colleagues to assume that Iran will strike the Jewish State only amidst the Israeli display of strength while ignoring a weak and vulnerable United States.
One can only speculate as to what the future may hold for both Israel and the United States from the nuclear threat of Iran. And as a special forces reservist and NCO in the Israel Defense Force, the ramifications of these developments affect me, my family, and my home in a very direct and personal way. We’ll see what happens, but I’ll keep y’all posted.
In the meantime, that speculation and conjecture is exactly what my wife and I did in our FREE new novel that was just released.
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